Champions League football still remains a possibility with just one final game to go of the Serie A campaign for Roma. Claudio Ranieri has worked miracles both off and on the pitch to even have us in this position and it will all be decided this evening if we will indeed be dining at Europe’s top table next season.
Roma are currently on the outside looking in and so will need results elsewhere to go our way to even have a shot at what was simply unthinkable in the early stages of our league campaign this season. Yet here we are.
Roma mathematically have a 22.22% chance of finishing the season with Champions League qualification. That’s because there are a total of 27 different combinations of results that can occur across the Serie A fixtures that affect the race for the top four this evening. Of those 27 possible outcomes, there are 6 which would see Roma qualify for the Champions League.
Every single one of those magical 6 possible outcomes relies on Juventus not taking maximum points away to relegation threatened Venezia this evening. If they do then the Champions League dream would be immediately over for Roma regardless of what our result is against Torino this evening.
Now if Juventus can only come away from Venezia with a draw, the door would be ajar for Roma to sneak into the top four and thus Champions League qualification if they can take maximum points themselves. A win and we are in in this situation.
If Juventus lose on the road to Venezia then a win for Roma keeps things simple and we would take fourth spot again. If Roma could only draw however then we have to start looking at the Lazio game as a Juventus loss and a Roma draw brings them into the equation. If Lazio were to win in this situation then they would leapfrog both ourselves and Juventus and we would be competing in either the Europa League or Conference League next season.
The most confusing and unlikely situation is also possible and that is that either Roma or Juventus qualify for the Champions League by means of a random draw. This will happen if Juventus lose, Roma draw and Lazio either lose or draw themselves. Depending on the games’ results, Roma and Juventus could indeed be tied on goal difference and will split the tie breaker head to head and so the only way to separate them would be via a random draw being made at the Serie A headquarters in Milan. Both Roma and Juventus names would be placed into a box and only one would be drawn out by the Serie A president. The team drawn out would compete in the Champions League next season.
Let’s recap the 6 magical ways Roma can qualify for the Champions League today
Juventus MUST not win.
If Juventus DRAW then all Roma would have to do is WIN and we would be in. A Roma DRAW would not be enough.
If Juventus LOSE and Roma WIN then we are heading to the Champions League. If Roma DRAW then a Lazio WIN would be devastating for us as they would qualify.
If Juventus LOSE, Roma DRAW and Lazio DRAW or LOSE then it goes down to goal difference between ourselves and Juventus. The better goal difference would qualify (currently Juventus) so would depend on the scores this evening. If the goal differences are equal to each other, we are into the random draw scenario.
It’s going to be a nervous one Romanisti.
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