Ask any Roma fan who their player of the season has been so far, and the response will be almost unanimous: Lorenzo Pellegrini.
The Rome-born attacking midfielder has flourished under Paulo Fonseca, contributing three goals and a remarkable nine assists in all competitions, despite missing two months with injury.
However, even Pellegrini’s biggest fan would have to admit that his start to 2020 has been slow. Apart from the Coppa Italia win against Parma in the Round of 16, when he scored his first ever brace in professional football, Pellegrini has not played at his usual standard since the return from the winter break.
Today marks the first time @LorePelle7 has scored more than once in a single game in his entire professional career.
— Giallorossi Yorkshire (@RomaYorkshire) January 16, 2020
He just keeps on getting better...
It was highlighted in midweek when Roma were knocked out of the Coppa by Juventus. Although far from the worst performer on the pitch, Pellegrini could not find his usual rhythmic influence and was a bit too loose.
It brought to light an intriguing fact. Roma have won every game in which Pellegrini has scored or made an assist this season, but when he has played and not done so, their form has been far less consistent.
Games in which Lorenzo #Pellegrini has got a goal or assist for #ASRoma this season:
— Giallorossi Yorkshire (@RomaYorkshire) January 23, 2020
8 wins out of 8
100% winning record
Games in which Pellegrini has played but not got a goal or assist:
3 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses
27% winning record
On one hand, it is an impressive statistic, that shows the influence Pellegrini has been having this season. Never before has he contributed this many assists in a single season, and if he stays fit for the remainder of the year, his campaign has not even passed its halfway stage. That is mind-blowing.
On the other hand, Roma’s inconsistent form when he is not at the top of his game is worrying. Have the side become too reliant on him? It is clear that if he doesn’t perform well, Roma suffer. For Pellegrini, this is the case perhaps more than any other player.
Edin Dzeko, Nicolo Zaniolo and Justin Kluivert are the only other players for whom Roma are unbeaten when they score or assist (only counting players who have contributed to a goal in more than five games). However, Roma have a higher win percentage for each of them in the games they don’t contribute to goals than what is the case for Pellegrini (28.6%, 33.3% and 35.7% respectively, compared to Pellegrini’s 27.3%). Thus, Roma are more reliant on Pellegrini than anyone.
As much as the Italian should be praised for his successes so far, Fonseca ought to be concerned about who else can step up to the plate when he is having an off-day.
Wingers Kluivert and Cengiz Under have been all too inconsistent this season to provide the threat that Roma really need, while alternatives Diego Perotti and Henrikh Mkhitaryan have not been able to put a run of games together due to injury.
Nicolo Zaniolo has been the obvious next go-to man for creativity, but with his season now over, Fonseca needs more options. As rumours continue to circulate about who will be signed on the right wing, the thought passes to left-back Aleksandar Kolarov, who has had a hand in the next highest number of goals behind Pellegrini. Only Dzeko has been involved in more than the pair, but as the striker, it is he who needs service. He cannot be expected to do it all alone. And the fact that a defender is so high up the list of players trying to catch him is also a concern.
When Pellegrini was absent, Javier Pastore kicked on to produce his best run of form in a Roma shirt. However, the pair are yet to start a game together this season. Will Pastore ever be fit enough to be the man that Roma can rely on?
It appears, then, that Roma have become too dependent on Pellegrini. But does the data suggest anyone is stepping up when he has a bad game?
In the above data, which takes into account the games in which Pellegrini played in but didn’t get a goal or assist – two of which were substitute appearances, for which only the time he was on the pitch is considered – it is apparent that Roma have struggled to find a reliable figure when the 23-year-old hasn’t influenced the action.
Dzeko has stepped up most when Pellegrini has been out of form, recording a pair of goals and assists. No other player has managed to play a part in more than two goals, though, which is a worry – especially when the two Kolarov goals came from dead ball situations (one free kick and one penalty), and both of Perotti’s were penalties.
Other than Dzeko, no-one has made more than one assist when Pellegrini has failed to do so. It is here where Roma have suffered most, given the amount of goals he has created this season. When he doesn’t, no-one is picking up the pieces and taking responsibility themselves.
Somewhat surprisingly, neither member of Roma’s dynamic midfield duo of Jordan Veretout and Amadou Diawara have a league assist to their name this season. The two have been a proficient double pivot, with a perfect contrast of energy and creativity, but perhaps this shows they need to get forward more often.
Overall, the data illustrates that Roma need more players to step up when Pellegrini isn’t on his A-game. Fellow attacking midfielders Zaniolo, Under and Kluivert have maybe only produced their best with Pellegrini’s help. They need to emerge from the shadows in their own right, or else Roma could fall into a dangerous trap of becoming a one-man team.
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