Qualification for the Champions League for the first time in eight years is in Roma’s hands with one game to go.
After beating Lazio on Sunday while Juventus lost to Fiorentina, Roma have risen to fourth in the Serie A table ahead of the final round of fixtures, when they will travel to face the already relegated Hellas Verona.
Win, and Roma will be guaranteed to qualify for the Champions League. Fail to, and it gets a bit more complicated.
Four teams are vying for the two remaining Champions League spots after Napoli joined champions Inter in qualifying for the league phase. As things stand, Milan and Roma are in the coveted territory on 70 points, with Como and Juventus chasing on 68.
For their final games of the season, Milan host a safe Cagliari, Como visit a Cremonese side aiming to climb out of the relegation zone, and Juventus have a local derby away at Torino.
So, what are the permutations for each possible combination of results, and how can Roma get into the Champions League with a win, draw or loss?
If Roma win…
That will be enough to confirm Champions League football next season. By reaching 73 points, Roma couldn’t be caught by Como or Juventus. The only question is whether they would finish third or fourth. To rise to third, they would have to better Milan’s result against Cagliari (either winning while Milan fail to or drawing while Milan lose).
If Roma draw…
It would only mean Champions League football if both Como and Juventus fail to win, as that would leave both challengers either one or two points behind Roma still. If both Como and Juventus were to win, it would open up a mini head-to-head table with all the teams on 71 points (this could include Milan as well if they also draw). Roma wouldn’t come out well from it; for a three-way head-to-head table, Como would come top (i.e. fourth in the actual table), Roma second (fifth) and Juventus third (sixth). For a four-way head-to-head table, the outlook would be worse (not that it matters too much knowing that fifth and sixth both equal Europa League football after Inter won the Coppa Italia). Milan would be top (third in the actual table), Como second (fourth), Juventus third (fifth) and Roma bottom (sixth). Finally, if Milan win to stay third and then only one of Juventus or Como win while Roma draw, Roma would finish fifth for one of two reasons. If it’s Juventus, it would be because of head to head. If it’s Como, with whom the head-to-head record is even, it would go down to goal difference. But Como’s is already better, so if Roma’s wouldn’t change with a draw and Como’s would improve further with a win, that would mean being overtaken.
If Roma lose…
There would still be a chance of Champions League qualification, but Juventus and Como would both have to fail to win as well for Roma to confirm fourth place. If just one of Juventus and Como were to win, they would leap into the top four and Roma would come fifth, one point shy. If both Juventus and Como win while Roma lose, Roma would end up sixth.
Roma finish 3rd if…
They win and Milan don’t
They draw and Milan lose
Roma finish 4th if…
They win and Milan win
They draw, Milan don’t lose, Como and Juventus don’t win
They lose, Como and Juventus don’t win
Roma finish 5th if…
They draw, Milan don’t lose, Juventus win but Como don’t
They draw, Milan don’t lose, Como win but Juventus don’t
They draw, Milan win, Como and Juventus win
They lose, Juventus win but Como don’t
They lose, Como win but Juventus don’t
Roma finish 6th if…
They draw, Milan draw, Como and Juventus win
They lose, Como and Juventus win
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